Reframing the House Race: Polls created unreasonable expectations. Democrats are doing just fine.

In the Blue Wave of 2018, Democrats won seats well into Red America. They should have been expecting to lose a few, but with the polling showing pick ups they weren’t paying attention to the reality on the ground. I was in Arizona in 2018 when Democrats picked up the 2nd CD. The 6th CD was a very long shot at best.

If we look at the accumulated gains since 2016, we see a different story. Democrats have had a good run.

UPDATE: Dems will hold the US House.
Dems are at 220 seats in the House: net +26 over 2016.
If Dems lose all 11 remaining TBD seats,
they would still hold 25 of the 40 seats they gained in 2016.
If Dems win IL-14, NY-19 and IA-02 (likely D) they’ll be net +28 over 2016.
I’m calling that a pretty good outcome.

Since 2016, 50 Congressional seats changed hands at least once:

DEMs flipped 26
REPs flipped 3
DEMs gained +23 seats
14 races are still TBD

7 seats changed but changed back:

DEMs won 7 seats in 2018 that REPs retook in 2020 (RDR)


29 seats changed hands:

REPs flip 3:
2 picked up by REPs in 2018 and held in 2020 (DRR)
1 picked up by REPs in 2020 (DDR)

DEMs flip 26 seats:
25 seats won in the 2018 blue wave and held in 2020 (RDD)
1 seat picked up in 2020 (RRD)


14 seats are still TBD:

6 lean D:
6 flip opportunities for Ds (RDD or RRD)

8 toss up:
7 flip opportunities for Ds (RDD or RRD)
1 flip opportunity for Rs (DDR)

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Reframing the U.S. House Race: Polls created unreasonable expectations. Democrats are doing just fine. If we look at the accumulated gains since 2016, we see a different story: Democrats had a net gain of 23 seats with 13 pick up opportunities still TBD.